From Data Notes by Central Pines Rural Planning Organization (CPRPO)

In a March 23, 2022 post, Dr. Michael Cline, NC's State Demographer provided an explanation of the difference between population count, estimates, and projections--

Dr. Cline started with "Every 10 years, the US Census Bureau conducts a census – a full count of the population, with the goal of counting everyone once, only one, and in the right place.  

But populations change as people are born, die, and move in and out of an area. As more time passes after the count, the less accurate the count becomes. Population estimates can update the previous census count to a more recent date. Estimates become especially important the further we get from the previous census, particularly given that many state and federal funds are allocated, at least partially, according to population.  

Every year, NC State Demographer produces the official state population estimates of all North Carolina counties and municipalities. We prepare these estimates using the last official US census count as a starting point. From the recent 2020 Census starting point, we add or subtract populations using models that incorporate trends in indicators correlated with population change (such as births, deaths, school enrollment, vehicle registrations, building permit activity, annexations, etc.). 

The US Census Bureau also produces population estimates. While their results are similar to ours, they use different models and input data to produce population estimates for municipalities (incorporated places in Census jargon), counties, and other geographic areas. As part of the Federal-State Cooperative for Population Estimates (FSCPE), we work closely with the US Census Bureau by providing data and reviewing Census Bureau population estimates prior to publication.  

The State Demographer also produces the official population projections for North Carolina and its counties. Population projections take historical trends in population change and the components of population change (births, deaths, migration) to estimate a future population. Projections make certain assumptions about future changes in the components of population change.  We produce our population projections annually using trends shown in our latest population estimates. "

Dr. Cline goes on to ask which data should someone use.

Karyl's take: For counts, the US Census is usually the best bet. However, if you need the official NC population, use the State Demographer's estimates for all jurisdictions - counties and municipalities.

For projections (beyond the next 5 years), the State Demographer is the only source, and it only provides projections for counties.

Sources: https://www.osbm.nc.gov/blog/2022/03/23/counts-estimates-and-projections-oh-my. Accessed April 1, 2025.